Tutor Perini Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)1.71 Intrinsic Value $17.16median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$19based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $82.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 79% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-79%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $3.8B Shares Outstanding 53.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tutor Perini is executing a highly successful operational turnaround under the leadership of CEO Gary Smalley. The company is transitioning away from low-margin legacy contracts toward a highly profitable, near-record backlog of $19.8 billion filled with higher-margin megaprojects. This shift is driving substantial operating cash flow and significant earnings power, as demonstrated by a strong Q1 2026 performance. With a robust net cash position and solid visibility into double-digit revenue growth and elevated earnings through 2027, Tutor Perini represents a compelling value opportunity as its valuation multiples normalize toward industry peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$116.25 High · most bullish analyst$125.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $105.00 Project execution delays or cost overruns on major fixed-price contracts erode expected margins. A slower-than-expected resolution of legacy disputes leads to additional non-cash charges, while tighter credit conditions or public funding delays slow down the transition of preconstruction projects into active construction phases. Base CaseCentral scenario $116.25 Matches the consensus meanTutor Perini successfully delivers on its affirmed FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30, supported by steady progress on newer, higher-margin civil and specialty construction projects. Operating cash flow remains robust, allowing the company to maintain its net cash position and execute modest share buybacks and dividend payments. Bull CaseUpside scenario $125.00 Accelerated resolution of legacy disputes yields massive cash inflows, while rapid execution on the $19.8 billion backlog drives operating margins to the high single digits. New megaproject wins, such as the Midtown Bus Terminal Replacement and the Penn Station transformation, expand the backlog beyond $22 billion, prompting upward revisions to FY 2026 and FY 2027 guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |