Tungray Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.36 Intrinsic Value $1.85median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $1.19Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 55% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+55%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.5M Enterprise Value $14.8M Shares Outstanding 16.4M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tungray Technologies Inc. (TRSG) has demonstrated a significant operational turnaround in fiscal year 2025, with revenue growing 22% year-over-year to $15.6 million and its net loss narrowing by 97% to just -$170k. The company's Engineer-to-Order (ETO) business model provides highly customized industrial manufacturing solutions to OEMs in semiconductors, electronics, and home appliances. While the return toward profitability is highly encouraging, the company remains a micro-cap stock with substantial customer concentration and geographic exposure in Singapore and China. A 'Hold' recommendation is advised until sustainable positive net income is established and horizontal strategic partnerships yield diversified revenue streams. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.1020% The bear case reflects potential downside from competitive pricing pressures in customized products, loss of key OEM accounts, or macroeconomic slowdowns in Singapore and China that delay capital expenditures by major clients. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.8050% The base case assumes steady execution of the ETO model with moderate revenue growth in customized products, stabilization of gross margins around 45-48%, and a gradual transition to consistent net profitability as cost-cutting measures take full effect. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2.5030% The bull case is driven by rapid adoption of its standardized products, particularly rising demand for automotive refrigerators used in new energy vehicles (NEVs), alongside successful expansion into high-value capabilities like medical component manufacturing and aviation contract repair work. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |