TSS Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryIT Consulting & Other Services Beta (adjusted)1.72 Intrinsic Value $2.95median of 4 methods · middle span $2-$4based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 70% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-70%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $277.7M Enterprise Value $226.1M Shares Outstanding 30.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TSS, Inc. (TSSI) is successfully transitioning into a high-margin AI and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure integration specialist. While total revenues are subject to quarterly volatility due to its lower-margin procurement business, the core Systems Integration segment is experiencing explosive growth (up 88% YoY in Q1 2026). Backed by a strong net cash position and a state-of-the-art facility in Georgetown, Texas, the company is well-positioned to capture secular tailwinds in generative AI deployment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$18.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.0020% Severe component shortages or supply chain disruptions halt AI rack deliveries, limiting throughput at the Georgetown facility. The primary OEM customer reduces its volume, or contract terms are renegotiated unfavorably, severely impacting profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $16.0050% Systems Integration continues its steady upward trajectory, offsetting conservative procurement volumes. The company achieves Adjusted EBITDA toward the high end of its $20M–$22M guidance range. Operating margins expand as high-margin services become a larger portion of total revenue. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.5030% AI rack integration volumes scale faster than anticipated at the Georgetown facility, driving Systems Integration revenue to over 35% of the total mix. Supply chain bottlenecks ease, allowing the company to exceed the high end of its FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $20M–$22M. Successful customer diversification reduces reliance on its primary OEM partner. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |