Trustmark Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Trustmark Corp

TRMKNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.77

Intrinsic Value $36.17median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $44.83Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.6B

Shares Outstanding 58.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Trustmark Corp (TRMK) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The bank has demonstrated solid execution, characterized by stable credit quality, robust capital ratios, and steady loan and deposit growth. However, regional macroeconomic headwinds, persistent deposit competition, and a flat net interest margin outlook limit near-term upside. With the stock trading close to consensus price targets, a Hold recommendation is warranted, supported by a reliable dividend yield and ongoing share repurchases.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$47.00

Mean target$49.25

High · most bullish analyst$54.25

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$47.0015%

A regional economic downturn in the Southeast leads to a sharp rise in commercial real estate nonaccrual loans, while intense deposit competition forces aggressive exception pricing, compressing the net interest margin below 3.75%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$49.2560%

Matches the consensus mean

Stable net interest margin within the guided 3.80% to 3.85% range, moderate loan and deposit growth, and steady execution of the $100 million share repurchase program support earnings per share of approximately $3.98 for 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$54.2525%

Accelerated loan growth in high-performing Southeast markets, combined with successful cost-containment measures and a transition of the wealth management brokerage platform to Raymond James, drives positive operating leverage and return on equity expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong capital position with a total risk-based capital ratio of 14.37% and tangible book value growth of 10.1% year-over-year.
Consistent shareholder returns through a regular quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share and an active $100 million share repurchase program for 2026.
Successful revenue diversification with non-interest income supported by wealth management platform transitions and insurance operations.

Key Investment Risks

Vulnerability to regional economic downturns due to geographic concentration in the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas).
Cost pressures and rising non-interest expenses, which increased by $8.1 million year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Potential asset quality deterioration, as evidenced by a commercial real estate credit moving to nonaccrual status in Q1 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Interest Margin falling below 3.75% for two consecutive quarters.
Nonaccrual loans increasing by more than 20% quarter-over-quarter.
Suspension or significant reduction of the authorized 2026 share repurchase program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.