Trustco Bank Corp Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $30.84median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $54.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $924.4M Enterprise Value $336.2M Shares Outstanding 17.4M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) continues to demonstrate solid operational execution, characterized by a traditional, low-risk community banking model focused on residential mortgages and relationship-based deposit gathering. In Q1 2026, the bank achieved a robust net income of $16.3 million (up 14.1% YoY) and an EPS of $0.91, driven by strategic loan portfolio repricing and disciplined deposit pricing. The net interest margin expanded by 20 basis points to 2.84%, while the efficiency ratio improved to 54%. Capital ratios remain exceptionally strong, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 10.62% at the holding company level as of late 2025. However, with the stock trading near its 52-week high and a lack of near-term catalysts to drive significant multiple expansion, a Hold rating is warranted. The bank's ongoing 2-million share repurchase program and steady dividend yield provide solid downside support. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Intensified competition for retail deposits forces TrustCo to raise deposit rates more aggressively, leading to NIM compression. A broader economic slowdown or a downturn in the residential real estate market dampens loan growth and increases credit provisions, weighing on profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully navigates the flat-to-inverted yield curve by repricing older, lower-yielding residential mortgages into current market rates. Deposit costs stabilize as the bank leverages its strong community relationships, maintaining a net interest margin around 2.80% to 2.90%. Share repurchases continue at a steady pace, supporting EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario Trustco Bank Corp NY (TRST) demonstrates a strong bull case driven by robust net interest margin (NIM) expansion, which widened to 2.87% in Q2 2026 due to the ongoing repricing of its loan portfolio at higher yields and lower interest expenses. The bank achieved record average loans of $5.3 billion (up 3.8% YoY) and steady deposit growth of 3.8% YoY, reflecting high customer confidence. Additionally, Trustco maintains solid asset quality with nonperforming loans at just 0.40% of total loans and a strong coverage ratio of 248.6%. Capital management remains highly active, with the bank repurchasing 1.0 million shares (5.6% of outstanding common stock) in the first half of 2026 under its 2026 program, on pace to complete a total of 3 million shares repurchased under its 2025-2026 programs. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |