TrueBlue Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

TrueBlue Inc

TBINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryHuman Resource & Employment Services

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.20Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $280.1M

Enterprise Value $339.2M

Shares Outstanding 30.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TrueBlue, Inc. is navigating a complex operational environment characterized by stabilizing top-line demand but persistent margin pressures. While Q1 2026 revenue grew 7.6% year-over-year to $398.6 million, driven by strong performance in skilled verticals and energy, profitability remains severely challenged. The company posted a net loss of $19.8 million, weighed down by a $3.7 million non-cash goodwill impairment in its Healthcare Staffing Professionals unit and higher workers' compensation costs. Gross margin contracted significantly to 19.8% from 23.3% in the prior year. Although cost-control measures have successfully reduced SG&A expenses, a full turnaround depends on sustained demand stabilization, successful integration of digital platforms, and the containment of operational headwinds. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted until clear signs of margin recovery and consistent profitability emerge.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$8.50

High · most bullish analyst$10.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.5020%

The bear case reflects a prolonged economic slowdown that dampens temporary staffing demand across all segments, particularly in the transactional light-industrial space. In this scenario, gross margins remain depressed below 20% due to persistent workers' compensation claims inflation and unfavorable business mix shifts. Further goodwill impairments in remaining reporting units (such as Centerline or PeopleScout) could trigger additional non-cash charges, deepening net losses and eroding shareholders' equity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$8.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes a gradual, uneven recovery in the staffing market. Revenue is expected to grow at a modest single-digit rate, in line with the company's Q2 2026 guidance of 2% to 8% growth. Gross margins are projected to stabilize in the 21% range as workers' compensation headwinds normalize and the business mix balances out. Profitability will remain muted in the near term, with the company gradually working its way back toward positive Adjusted EBITDA and breakeven net income by late 2026 or early 2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$10.0025%

The bull case is predicated on a rapid acceleration of organic growth in skilled verticals (such as energy and commercial driving) and successful monetization of digital investments (like PeopleScout's Affinix talent technology). If macroeconomic conditions improve, driving a sharp rebound in light-industrial staffing demand, TrueBlue's high operating leverage could lead to rapid margin expansion. Additionally, successful cost-discipline measures could permanently lower the SG&A run-rate, amplifying profitability as revenues recover.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line recovery in skilled verticals, highlighted by a 19% revenue increase in the PeopleReady segment during Q1 2026.
Disciplined cost management, resulting in a 7.7% year-over-year reduction in SG&A expenses to $87.3 million.
Solid liquidity position with $60.2 million in total liquidity, providing financial flexibility during operational transitions.

Key Investment Risks

Severe gross margin compression, which fell to 19.8% in Q1 2026 due to higher workers' compensation costs and unfavorable mix shifts.
Risk of further non-cash asset impairments, following a $3.7 million goodwill impairment charge in Q1 2026.
Cyclical sensitivity to macroeconomic downturns, which directly impacts corporate hiring budgets and temporary staffing volumes.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross margin falling below 18.5% for two consecutive quarters.
Total liquidity dropping below $45 million, indicating severe cash burn.
A sustained year-over-year decline in PeopleReady segment revenue, signaling a loss of market share in core skilled verticals.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.