Trip.com Group Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Trip.com Group Ltd ADR

TCOMNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Beta (adjusted)0.30

Intrinsic Value $69.78median of 5 methods · middle span $37-$79based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $39.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 78% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+78%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $24.6B

Enterprise Value $23.3B

Shares Outstanding 698.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Last ex-dividend17 Mar 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Trip.com Group entered 2026 with strong international and inbound-booking momentum, but management simultaneously guided to sharply slower Q2 revenue growth and subsequently accepted a competition-law administrative penalty requiring rectification.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets29 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$42.31

Mean target$60.33

High · most bullish analyst$72.27

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$42.3123%

Revenue growth falls below guidance as macro headwinds and operational adjustments weigh on demand or monetization, while competition-law remediation disrupts supplier economics or produces additional enforcement exposure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$60.3358%

Matches the consensus mean

International demand remains an important growth engine, but consolidated growth decelerates toward the company's 3%-8% Q2 outlook and regulatory remediation creates manageable execution costs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$72.2719%

International-platform and inbound bookings continue expanding rapidly, while required rectification is implemented without materially impairing supplier relationships or customer conversion. The company's broad portfolio and international demand then sustain growth above the Q2 guidance range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

International-platform gross bookings increased approximately 65% year over year in Q1 2026.
Inbound-travel bookings increased approximately 90% year over year in Q1 2026.
The Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner portfolio provides multiple brands through which to address domestic, inbound and international travel demand.

Key Investment Risks

Management expected Q2 2026 total net revenue growth to slow to approximately 3%-8%, with a corresponding effect on margins and bottom-line results.
Trip.com Group accepted a July 2026 administrative penalty decision and committed to legally required rectification measures.
Management identified elevated energy pricing and geopolitical volatility as macro headwinds affecting its Q2 outlook.
Competition-law and consumer-protection investigations or inquiries could require changes to business practices and adversely affect operating outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.