Trimble Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustryScientific & Technical Instruments Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $63.18median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $57.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.3B Enterprise Value $14.6B Shares Outstanding 232.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Trimble's investment case is supported by record recurring revenue, double-digit organic growth, expanding non-GAAP operating profitability, and raised 2026 guidance. Second-quarter 2026 ARR reached $2.509 billion, organic ARR growth was 12%, and non-GAAP operating margin was 26.8%. The principal counterweights are the $562 million Transportation and Logistics goodwill impairment, macroeconomic and trade uncertainty, acquisition-execution risk, and unresolved internal-control remediation risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$80.09 High · most bullish analyst$94.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $61.0018% Organic ARR growth falls below 10%, raised guidance is reduced, or Transportation and Logistics records additional impairment amid weaker software valuations or macroeconomic conditions. These outcomes would undermine the recurring-growth and margin-expansion thesis and could return the shares toward the lower end of the issuer-reported 52-week range. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0956% Matches the consensus meanTrimble delivers within its raised 2026 revenue range of $3.90-$3.95 billion and non-GAAP EPS range of $3.60-$3.70 while organic ARR growth remains approximately double-digit and no additional material goodwill impairment occurs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $94.0026% Organic ARR growth remains at or above the second-quarter 2026 rate, operating margin continues expanding, and full-year results reach or exceed the upper ends of the raised revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance ranges. Successful scaling of connected workflows and AI-enabled offerings supports a return toward the upper end of Trimble's issuer-reported 52-week trading range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |