Trico Bancshares Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $51.19Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 32.1M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) demonstrates robust financial resilience in a shifting macroeconomic environment, characterized by strong net interest margin expansion, disciplined expense management, and solid credit quality. The bank's conservative asset-liability positioning and stable core deposit base in California provide a competitive advantage, positioning it to sustain high profitability and deliver consistent shareholder returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$62.81 High · most bullish analyst$67.04 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.00 An economic slowdown in California leads to a sharp rise in non-performing assets and net charge-offs, particularly in the commercial real estate sector. Severe deposit competition forces higher funding costs, compressing the net interest margin and straining non-interest fee income streams. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.81 Matches the consensus meanTriCo successfully navigates modest margin pressures through disciplined deposit repricing. Loan growth continues in the mid-single-digit range, and credit quality remains stable with non-performing assets well-controlled. The bank continues its steady capital return program via quarterly dividends and opportunistic share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $67.04 The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance or raises interest rates, allowing TriCo to further expand its net interest margin due to its asset-sensitive balance sheet. Loan growth accelerates in high-yield commercial and agricultural sectors while credit costs remain exceptionally low, driving EPS significantly above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |