Trekor Metals Ltd Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCopper Beta (adjusted)1.71 Intrinsic Value $2.38median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $8.91Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 73% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-73%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Shares Outstanding 323.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Taseko Mines is transitioning from a single-asset producer to a multi-mine copper platform. The cornerstone of this growth is the ramp-up of the Florence Copper Project in Arizona, which utilizes low-cost in-situ copper recovery (ISR) to produce high-purity copper cathode. Combined with steady production from the 100%-owned Gibraltar Mine in British Columbia, Taseko is positioned to significantly increase its annual copper output to over 200 million pounds. The stock trades at a substantial discount to its combined asset Net Present Value (NPV), offering a compelling re-rating opportunity as Florence achieves commercial scale. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.62 Mean target$10.62 High · most bullish analyst$10.62 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.6220% The Florence ramp-up faces technical or wellfield productivity delays, causing production to stabilize around 50 million pounds per year. Simultaneously, copper prices retreat due to macroeconomic headwinds, compressing operating margins at Gibraltar and delaying the company's debt reduction plans. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.6250% Matches the consensus meanFlorence Copper ramps up steadily, meeting its 2026 production guidance of 30 to 35 million pounds and reaching full capacity in late 2027. Gibraltar maintains steady-state production of 110 to 115 million pounds in 2026. Copper prices average around $4.50/lb, driving solid EBITDA growth and supporting a gradual closing of the valuation gap. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.6230% Florence Copper successfully ramps up to its full design capacity of 85 million pounds per year by 2027 at an industry-leading C1 cash cost of $1.11/lb. Supported by strong global copper demand and prices remaining above $5.00/lb, Taseko generates substantial free cash flow, allowing it to rapidly deleverage and achieve a net cash position by 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |