Travel+Leisure Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryTravel Services Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $97.04median of 5 methods · middle span $47-$123based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $61.87Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 57% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+57%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.8B Enterprise Value $9.2B Shares Outstanding 63.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Travel & Leisure Co. (TNL) represents a compelling investment opportunity as the world's largest vacation ownership business. The company is successfully executing a capital-light, recurring-fee business model that generates robust free cash flow and supports aggressive shareholder returns. Despite near-term headwinds in its Travel and Membership segment and rising credit provisions, TNL's core Vacation Ownership engine remains highly resilient, driven by strong tour flow, stable volume per guest (VPG), and a pivot toward repeat owners. The company's valuation is highly attractive relative to its mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and double-digit EPS growth profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$77.00 Mean target$91.00 High · most bullish analyst$107.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $77.00 The bear case is triggered by a severe macroeconomic downturn that curtails discretionary travel spending, leading to a sharp drop in tour flow and VPG. Additionally, worsening consumer credit quality could cause a spike in timeshare loan defaults, forcing substantial increases in loan loss provisions and impacting cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $91.00 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes steady execution of the company's 2026 guidance, with Gross VOI sales growing 1% to 5% and Adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.03 billion to $1.055 billion. Share repurchases continue to reduce the outstanding float, driving double-digit EPS growth despite flat-to-soft trends in the travel club business and moderate increases in loan loss provisions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $107.00 The bull case assumes accelerated adoption of new experiential brands (such as Sports Illustrated Resorts and Eddie Bauer Adventure Club), rapid stabilization of the Travel and Membership segment, and lower-than-expected loan default rates. This scenario is supported by strong consumer discretionary spending and successful execution of the Resort Optimization Initiative, leading to significant margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |