TransUnion Dossier - Source-backed chat

TransUnion

TRUNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges

Beta (adjusted)1.35

Intrinsic Value $94.93median of 6 methods · middle span $80-$96based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $61.12Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 55% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+55%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $11.7B

Enterprise Value $16.6B

Shares Outstanding 193.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TransUnion entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 15%, organic constant-currency revenue increased 10.1%, and management raised full-year organic growth guidance to 8%-9%. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals were notable growth contributors, and migrations to OneTru plus faster product introductions support continued innovation-led growth. Offsetting those strengths, consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin declined year over year, Consumer Interactive revenue contracted, leverage was 2.6x after acquisition activity, and management continues to identify macroeconomic, data-security, regulatory and FICO mortgage-licensing uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$77.00

Mean target$96.24

High · most bullish analyst$115.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$77.0022%

Organic growth falls below guidance as lending activity or other macro-sensitive demand weakens, Consumer Interactive contraction persists, and international or acquisition-related growth fails to offset the slowdown. Margin falls below 35.2%, leverage rises above 2.6x, or data-security, regulatory or FICO mortgage-licensing developments impair earnings quality.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$96.2454%

Matches the consensus mean

TransUnion delivers within its raised full-year ranges of 8%-9% organic constant-currency revenue growth, 35.2%-35.4% adjusted EBITDA margin and $4.75-$4.83 adjusted diluted EPS. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals growth offsets continued softness in Consumer Interactive, while leverage remains near the June level.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$115.0024%

Revenue remains near or above the upper end of the raised outlook as Financial Services, Emerging Verticals and international markets sustain growth. OneTru migrations and new-product introductions improve scalability, while full-year adjusted EBITDA margin reaches or exceeds the 35.4% upper end of guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 15%, including 10.1% organic constant-currency growth, and management raised its full-year organic growth outlook to 8%-9%.
U.S. Financial Services organic constant-currency revenue grew 18.2%, Emerging Verticals grew 8.6%, and total International grew 6.3% in the second quarter.
Adjusted diluted EPS increased to $1.23, management expects 11%-12% full-year adjusted EPS growth, and year-to-date share repurchases through July were approximately $150 million.
Substantial U.S. credit-customer migrations to OneTru and an accelerated pace of global product introductions provide potential for scalable innovation-led growth.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 34.8% from 35.7%, indicating that strong revenue growth did not translate into year-over-year margin expansion.
Consumer Interactive organic constant-currency revenue declined 3%, creating a meaningful offset to growth in Financial Services and Emerging Verticals.
The June 2026 leverage ratio was 2.6x following acquisition activity, while TransUnion also increased share repurchases, increasing the importance of cash generation and disciplined capital allocation.
Material risks identified by TransUnion include macroeconomic and consumer-credit weakness, data-security or service interruptions, regulation and litigation, acquisition integration, and uncertainty related to FICO's Mortgage Direct License Program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.