Trane Technologies plc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $386.64median of 6 methods · middle span $311-$667based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $451.98Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $99.4B Enterprise Value $102.3B Shares Outstanding 221.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Operating momentum is strong: second-quarter organic bookings rose 37%, book-to-bill reached 123%, backlog increased 70% to $12.1 billion, and management raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance. The offset is weakening conversion, with adjusted operating margin down 60 basis points and pronounced EMEA revenue and margin pressure. The recommendation is Hold rather than a valuation-dependent Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$422.00 Mean target$526.99 High · most bullish analyst$575.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $422.0018% Bookings normalize sharply, backlog conversion slows, and EMEA weakness spreads while enterprise margin pressure persists. A reduction in organic-growth or adjusted-EPS guidance would indicate that demand strength is not translating into the expected earnings outcome. Base CaseCentral scenario $526.9958% Matches the consensus meanTrane Technologies broadly delivers its raised 2026 outlook of approximately 11.5% reported revenue growth, approximately 9% organic growth and $15.20-$15.30 of adjusted continuing EPS. Commercial HVAC and the $12.1 billion backlog support growth, while EMEA weakness and near-term margin compression limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $575.0024% Record backlog converts without material cancellations, commercial HVAC demand remains elevated, and improved residential and transport conditions broaden growth. Revenue exceeds the raised 2026 outlook while operating margins recover as mix, productivity and pricing offset acquisition and restructuring costs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |