Tradeweb Markets Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tradeweb Markets Inc

TWNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $134.30median of 6 methods · middle span $101-$273based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $100.84Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $21.8B

Enterprise Value $19.9B

Shares Outstanding 213M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tradeweb entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 9.0%, quarterly average daily volume increased 18.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 54.4%, and July average daily volume remained 23.3% above the prior year. The platform also continues to deepen automation and proprietary-data capabilities through products such as AiEX and TARA. However, reported volume growth can overstate economic growth when activity shifts toward lower-fee compression or portfolio-trading protocols.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$98.00

Mean target$123.86

High · most bullish analyst$178.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$98.0019%

Lower market activity, weaker volatility-driven trading, or a larger mix of compression and portfolio trading causes volume growth to decelerate or turn negative while fee capture and margins weaken.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$123.8656%

Matches the consensus mean

Trading activity remains above prior-year levels but moderates from the strongest 2026 months. Revenue continues to grow more slowly than notional volume because lower-fee protocols affect mix, while adjusted EBITDA margin remains near its recent mid-50% level.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$178.0025%

Sustained double-digit activity growth across rates, credit, equities and money markets, continued client adoption of automated workflows, and expansion of proprietary data and AI tools could support durable revenue growth and further operating leverage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 average daily volume increased 18.2% year over year, with quarterly records in several rates, credit and money-market categories; July average daily volume subsequently increased 23.3%.
Second-quarter revenue increased 9.0%, net income increased 17.8%, and adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 54.4% from 54.2% in the prior-year period.
Tradeweb continues to invest in workflow automation and proprietary intelligence, including the 2026 launch of TARA, while serving more than 3,000 clients across more than 85 countries.

Key Investment Risks

Notional-volume growth does not translate mechanically into revenue growth because swaps compression and portfolio trading carry comparatively lower fees per million.
Trading activity is sensitive to central-bank policy expectations, geopolitical conditions, market volatility and client participation, creating potential variability across months and asset classes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.