Trade Desk Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryAdvertising Agencies Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $25.92median of 5 methods · middle span $10-$70based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.17Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 113% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+113%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.8B Enterprise Value $4.6B Shares Outstanding 467.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The investment case is balanced between durable customer retention and expanding commerce, data and connected-TV integrations on one side, and a material loss of momentum on the other. Q2 2026 revenue increased only 3% year over year, adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 34%, and management acknowledged that the quarter did not meet its standard. The Q3 outlook establishes a demanding near-term execution test. A neutral recommendation is appropriate until reported performance demonstrates that platform upgrades, new leadership and ecosystem partnerships can restore stronger growth without further margin erosion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.00 Mean target$13.39 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0025% Revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls below the Q3 outlook, year-over-year growth fails to improve from Q2's 3% rate, or customer retention drops below 95%. Such outcomes would indicate that execution problems, advertiser caution or competitive pressure are more persistent than the base case assumes. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.3956% Matches the consensus meanThe company performs near its Q3 outlook, retains more than 95% of customers and gradually stabilizes after Q2's execution shortfall, but growth and margins remain below their prior trajectory while management implements platform and organizational changes. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0019% Execution improves rapidly under the strengthened leadership team, Q3 results exceed the official $650 million revenue and approximately $160 million adjusted EBITDA outlook, customer retention remains above 95%, and integrations spanning Netflix, Samsung Ads, Adobe, Databricks and commerce-data partners support renewed advertiser adoption. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |