Tractor Supply Co Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryOther Specialty Retail Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $47.22median of 6 methods · middle span $15-$79based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $31.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 51% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.3B Enterprise Value $18.2B Shares Outstanding 525.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tractor Supply retains a differentiated rural retail footprint and a resilient needs-based assortment, but the near-term risk-reward is balanced. Second-quarter 2026 net sales rose 2.3%, yet comparable-store sales declined 1.5%, transaction count declined 1.7%, companion animal remained below the company average and adjusted operating income fell 5.1%. Management reduced fiscal 2026 expectations to comparable sales of -1% to flat and adjusted EPS of $1.90-$2.00, and withdrew its prior long-term framework. Offsetting those pressures are continued store expansion, digital growth, gross-margin discipline and the broader pet-care platform created through Allivet and VIP Petcare. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$35.52 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.0023% Comparable sales finish below the updated range, transaction weakness persists and companion-animal demand remains below the company average. Further Petsense restructuring, VIP Petcare integration costs or continued fixed-cost deleverage push adjusted operating margin and adjusted EPS below guidance, delaying restoration of a credible long-term framework. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.5256% Matches the consensus meanFiscal 2026 performance remains near management's updated ranges, with new-store growth offsetting soft comparable sales while companion-animal and discretionary demand recover only gradually. Gross-margin management partly offsets expense deleverage, and the pet-services strategy develops without becoming a major near-term earnings driver. Bull CaseUpside scenario $44.0021% Comparable sales recover to positive territory, needs-based categories remain resilient, digital sales continue growing and the VIP Petcare and Allivet assets deepen customer engagement without material integration disruption. Margin productivity improves, the Petsense restructuring remains contained near the disclosed scope and the replacement long-term framework restores confidence. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |