TPG RE Finance Trust Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc

TRTXNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Beta (adjusted)1.28

Intrinsic Value $6.55median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $6.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $486.7M

Enterprise Value $3.8B

Shares Outstanding 76.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) represents a compelling value opportunity in the commercial mortgage REIT sector. The company has successfully executed a strategic pivot, reducing its volatile office sector exposure to less than 5% of its total loan portfolio while shifting focus to resilient multifamily and industrial assets. Trading at a significant discount to its book value of $11.06 per share, TRTX offers an attractive, well-covered dividend yield of over 11% supported by stable distributable earnings of $0.25 per share.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.50

Mean target$10.08

High · most bullish analyst$11.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Deterioration in multifamily property fundamentals leads to credit downgrades and increased CECL provisioning. Net interest margin compresses due to elevated funding costs, putting pressure on dividend coverage and causing book value erosion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company maintains a 100% performing loan portfolio and successfully deploys capital into new multifamily and industrial originations. Distributable earnings remain stable at $0.25-$0.26 per share, comfortably covering the $0.24 quarterly dividend. The stock's discount to book value narrows as legacy credit concerns subside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Bulls argue that TPG RE Finance Trust is well-positioned to increase its earnings run-rate and support revenue stability by leveraging its solid liquidity, lower leverage, and REO recycling. Furthermore, the company's strategic focus on first mortgage loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate (specifically multifamily and industrial assets) provides a stable revenue stream, allowing it to outperform its commercial mortgage REIT peer group.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proactive de-risking with office exposure reduced to less than 5% of the portfolio.
Strong dividend coverage with Q1 2026 distributable earnings of $0.25 covering the $0.24 dividend.
High-quality portfolio with 100% performing loans and a weighted average risk rating of 3.0.
Substantial margin of safety with the stock trading at a deep discount to its book value of $11.06 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Potential credit deterioration in the multifamily sector if macroeconomic conditions weaken.
Interest rate volatility impacting net interest margins and borrower refinancing capabilities.
Slower-than-expected capital deployment in a highly competitive lending environment.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A drop in the performing loan ratio below 95%.
Distributable earnings falling below the quarterly dividend payout of $0.24 per share.
Significant upward migration in the portfolio's weighted average risk rating above 3.5.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.