TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryMortgage REITs Beta (adjusted)1.44 Intrinsic Value $5.52median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $181.6M Shares Outstanding 32.6M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (formerly AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.) is transitioning its capital allocation from legacy commercial real estate into higher-yielding residential credit, specifically home equity loans and non-agency securitizations. While the company benefits from its affiliation with TPG Angelo Gordon and maintains a strong dividend yield of approximately 12%, tight net interest margins, high debt-to-equity leverage, and legacy non-accrual commercial loans warrant a neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.50 Mean target$9.25 High · most bullish analyst$10.25 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.4215% Persistent high short-term funding costs compress net interest margins further. Legacy commercial real estate resolutions face delays or additional impairments, and the high debt-to-equity ratio limits financial flexibility, putting pressure on the dividend payout sustainability. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0850% Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) remain stable around $0.26 per share, comfortably covering the quarterly dividend of $0.24. Book value remains stable near $9.97 per share, with gradual capital rotation and moderate economic return on equity. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.0035% Successful recycling of legacy WMC commercial loans and leveraging of unlevered home equity loans to unlock investable capital. This capital rotation, yielding higher risk-adjusted returns, could generate additional earnings power, driving dividend increases and book value expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |