TPG Inc Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value $33.77median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$41based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $44.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.5B Enterprise Value $18.9B Shares Outstanding 389M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TPG entered the second half of 2026 with substantial operating momentum: total assets under management reached $327 billion at June 30, 2026, management described first-half results as record-setting, and the firm operates across private equity, growth, impact, credit, real estate, and market solutions. The preceding year also produced more than $51 billion of capital raised, $52 billion deployed, and $72 billion of dry powder. These factors support a constructive long-term operating view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$60.50 High · most bullish analyst$68.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.0017% Weaker capital markets, adverse economic or regulatory conditions, integration challenges, or execution difficulties reduce fundraising and realizations and cause total AUM to retreat below the scale achieved by year-end 2025. Base CaseCentral scenario $60.5058% Matches the consensus meanTPG maintains most of its recent operating momentum, with diversified strategies and substantial investable capital supporting growth through changing market conditions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $68.0025% The diversified platform converts strong client demand and deployment capacity into sustained expansion. The $327 billion AUM base, broad strategy mix, and prior-year records for capital formation and deployment provide operating leverage and multiple channels for organic growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |