Toyota Motor Corp ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Toyota Motor Corp ADR

TMTokyo Stock Exchange

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value $146.30median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $183.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $216.8B

Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Toyota's operating outlook is constructive: first-quarter FY2027 operating income was JPY 1.0634 trillion, full-year operating-income guidance was raised to JPY 3.4 trillion, and management announced a share repurchase of up to JPY 1 trillion. Electrified vehicles represented 55.3% of Toyota and Lexus sales, with FY2027 hybrid sales expected to exceed five million units. A Hold recommendation balances these operating and capital-return strengths against currency, trade, regulatory, supply-chain, raw-material, technology-execution, and demand risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$220.00

Mean target$231.58

High · most bullish analyst$239.31

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$220.0018%

Operating income falls below the JPY 3.4 trillion forecast if vehicle demand weakens or adverse currency, trade, regulatory, supply-chain, raw-material, technology, or regional disruptions outweigh cost reductions and value-chain improvements.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$231.5860%

Matches the consensus mean

Toyota broadly delivers its FY2027 guidance, supported by hybrid demand, cost reductions, and value-chain earnings, while currency, trade, regional logistics, and investment requirements constrain upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$239.3122%

Toyota exceeds its FY2027 operating-income and vehicle-sales objectives as hybrid demand remains strong, value-chain earnings and cost reductions outperform, and planned production-capacity investments improve supply. The JPY 1 trillion repurchase and retirement of 200 million treasury shares add support to per-share value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Toyota raised its FY2027 operating-income forecast by JPY 400 billion to JPY 3.4 trillion after reporting first-quarter operating income of JPY 1.0634 trillion.
Toyota authorized an open-market share repurchase of up to JPY 1 trillion and decided to retire 200 million treasury shares.
Electrified vehicles represented 55.3% of Toyota and Lexus sales in the April-June quarter, and Toyota expects FY2027 hybrid sales to exceed five million units.

Key Investment Risks

Automotive demand and results remain exposed to economic conditions, market competition, foreign-exchange rates, interest rates, and political or economic instability.
Changes in safety, trade, environmental, emissions, fuel-economy, and other regulations, as well as litigation or government investigations, could adversely affect results.
Execution risks include achieving planned production efficiencies and capital investment, securing suppliers and raw materials, developing accepted new products, maintaining digital systems, and managing natural or transportation disruptions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.