Toronto Dominion Bank Dossier - Source-backed chat

Toronto Dominion Bank

TDToronto Stock Exchange

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $27.69median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jan 2026

Market Price $117.53Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 76% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-76%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $192.6B

Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TD entered fiscal 2026's final quarter with broad operating momentum: third-quarter adjusted EPS increased 26% year over year to C$2.77, adjusted ROE reached 16.0%, Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking produced record revenue and earnings, U.S. Banking adjusted earnings increased, and Wealth Management and Insurance and Wholesale Banking delivered record results. The 14.3% CET1 ratio provides a substantial operating and capital-management buffer. The counterweight is execution risk from the multi-year U.S. BSA/AML and enterprise AML remediation, including approximately US$550 million of expected fiscal 2026 spending and milestones extending through calendar 2027. Valuation discipline is also warranted after TD reported a July 31 TSX price of C$168.04, an 18.0-times reported price-earnings ratio and a 71.9% one-year total shareholder return. Strong execution supports holding the shares, but the combination of remediation uncertainty, macroeconomic sensitivity and the rerating limits the case for a more aggressive recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$98.06

Mean target$114.42

High · most bullish analyst$130.79

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

U.S. BSA/AML validation or lookback work expands beyond current assumptions, remediation spending exceeds guidance, or regulatory approvals delay strategic actions. Concurrently, tariffs, persistent inflation or weaker growth increase credit migration and provisions, while insurance catastrophe losses and higher operating costs reduce efficiency and returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Operating momentum remains positive but moderates from the unusually strong third quarter. Canadian and U.S. margins improve modestly as management indicated, credit costs remain manageable, and the 14.3% CET1 ratio absorbs ongoing investment. Remediation continues through 2027 without a material new sanction, but its cost and regulatory uncertainty constrain multiple expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Canadian banking sustains loan, deposit and margin growth; U.S. core loans and profitability continue improving; Wealth and Wholesale preserve strong momentum; and remediation remains within the disclosed timetable and cost envelope. These outcomes would support durable mid-teens group returns and continued capital flexibility.

Key Investment Merits

Broad earnings strength: third-quarter adjusted net income increased 21% year over year, adjusted EPS increased 26%, and Canadian, Wealth and Wholesale businesses reported record results.
Capital strength and improving profitability: CET1 was 14.3%, adjusted ROE was 16.0%, and adjusted return on tangible common equity was 19.1%.
U.S. franchise recovery: adjusted U.S. Banking net income increased 11% in U.S. dollars year over year, adjusted ROE reached 10.2%, and core loan volumes excluding run-off portfolios grew.

Key Investment Risks

U.S. BSA/AML and enterprise AML remediation remains a multi-year program subject to monitor, audit and regulatory validation, with important milestones and lookback work continuing through 2027.
Credit and macroeconomic sensitivity remains meaningful: management identified tariff, inflation, energy-price, interest-rate and recession uncertainty, while Canadian impaired provisions reflected consumer credit migration.
The risk-reward is less forgiving after the strong rerating: TD reported a 71.9% one-year total shareholder return and an 18.0-times reported price-earnings ratio at July 31, 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.