Toro Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Toro Co

TTCNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTools & Accessories

Beta (adjusted)0.79

Intrinsic Value $89.26median of 6 methods · middle span $81-$107based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $96.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.1B

Enterprise Value $9.9B

Shares Outstanding 96.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Toro entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with constructive operating momentum: second-quarter net sales increased 8.1% to $1.42 billion and adjusted EPS increased 12.7% to $1.60. Management raised full-year guidance to net-sales growth of 4.0%-6.5% and adjusted EPS of $4.50-$4.62. The outlook is balanced by the need to validate that momentum in the September 3 third-quarter report and execute a planned November 1 CEO transition.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$109.25

High · most bullish analyst$120.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.0020%

Demand or execution weakens enough for fiscal 2026 net-sales growth to fall below 4.0% or adjusted EPS to fall below $4.50.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$109.2557%

Matches the consensus mean

Toro delivers within its raised fiscal 2026 guidance ranges as solid demand and operating execution are partly offset by normal execution uncertainty and the leadership handoff.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.0023%

Broad-based customer demand and margin improvement persist, allowing Toro to deliver near the upper ends of its 4.0%-6.5% sales-growth and $4.50-$4.62 adjusted-EPS ranges. Continued operating execution would strengthen the earnings trajectory.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales increased 8.1% to $1.42 billion, while adjusted EPS increased 12.7% to $1.60.
Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 guidance to 4.0%-6.5% net-sales growth and adjusted EPS of $4.50-$4.62.

Key Investment Risks

The investment case depends on delivering at least the lower bounds of the raised fiscal 2026 sales-growth and adjusted-EPS guidance ranges.
Edric C. Funk is scheduled to succeed Richard M. Olson as CEO on November 1, 2026, creating near-term leadership-transition execution risk even though the succession is planned and internal.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.