Tootsie Roll Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConfectioners Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $33.42median of 6 methods · middle span $30-$38based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.57Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 72.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) continues to demonstrate its defensive resilience, posting steady revenue and net income growth despite severe commodity headwinds, particularly cocoa and chocolate inflation. The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with minimal debt and a strong cash position, allowing it to fund a major $75-85 million plant expansion to drive long-term operational efficiencies. However, the stock trades at a significant valuation premium (P/E ratio of ~27-29x) compared to the broader food and confectionery industry. Given the lack of near-term catalysts, slow organic volume growth, and margin pressure from elevated input costs, the stock is fairly valued, supporting a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Cocoa and packaging costs experience further unexpected spikes, while consumers show strong resistance to additional price hikes, leading to volume contraction. Operating losses at the Spanish subsidiary widen, and capital expenditure overruns on the plant expansion strain free cash flow, leading to a contraction of the stock's premium multiple toward the industry average. Base CaseCentral scenario Tootsie Roll maintains slow, steady revenue growth of 1-2% driven by domestic pricing actions and stable seasonal demand. Gross margins remain slightly pressured but stable in the 34-36% range as elevated commodity costs are gradually offset by pricing and efficiency gains. The stock continues to trade range-bound between $35 and $40, reflecting its defensive profile and premium multiple. Bull CaseUpside scenario A rapid decline in global cocoa and chocolate prices, combined with successful execution of the $75-85 million plant expansion, drives substantial gross margin expansion. Additionally, the newly launched 'Mr. Owl' marketing campaigns and product innovations (such as 'The Berry Ones' at Walmart) successfully accelerate domestic volume growth and expand market share. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |