Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.46 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $9.74Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $167.1M Enterprise Value −$4.5M Shares Outstanding 17.1M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tonix Pharmaceuticals has successfully transitioned into a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company following the FDA approval and subsequent launch of TONMYA for fibromyalgia. Backed by a robust cash position of $185.5 million as of March 31, 2026, and no debt, the company possesses a solid financial runway extending into early Q2 2027. The commercial launch of TONMYA is showing early positive momentum, generating $3.7 million in net sales in Q1 2026 and securing commercial payer agreements covering approximately 52 million U.S. lives. Furthermore, Tonix is advancing a highly diversified clinical pipeline across CNS, immunology, infectious diseases, and rare diseases, which provides multiple high-impact clinical catalysts over the next 12 to 24 months. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$42.20 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.2220% TONMYA commercial adoption slows down due to intense competition or market access barriers, resulting in flat quarterly sales. High operational cash burn from multiple concurrent clinical programs accelerates capital depletion, forcing dilutive equity financing ahead of schedule and depressing the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $46.2555% TONMYA continues its steady commercial trajectory, meeting or slightly exceeding consensus revenue forecasts of approximately $30.9 million to $31.5 million for FY 2026. The company successfully initiates its planned Phase 2 trials for TNX-102 SL in MDD and TNX-1500 in kidney transplant recipients, while maintaining its cash runway into Q2 2027 through disciplined capital allocation and strategic use of its ATM facility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $68.2525% TONMYA experiences rapid commercial adoption, significantly exceeding consensus sales expectations due to strong physician uptake and expanded payer coverage. Simultaneously, the Phase 2 HORIZON study of TNX-102 SL in MDD and the Phase 2 study of TNX-4800 for Lyme disease prevention yield highly positive clinical data, positioning Tonix as a leading multi-asset commercial biotech and driving substantial valuation expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |