Tompkins Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $100.47median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $96.25Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $1.9B Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) is navigating a transition phase following the strategic sale of its insurance business (Tompkins Insurance Agencies) to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. for $223 million. While the transaction generated a substantial net gain of $183 million that offset securities restructuring losses, it leaves the bank more reliant on traditional banking fee income and net interest income. Q1 2026 results demonstrated solid profitability with EPS of $1.82, beating consensus estimates, driven by disciplined expense management and steady net interest income. However, regional banking headwinds, including deposit cost pressures and potential net interest margin compression in a shifting rate environment, warrant a cautious Hold stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$104.00 Mean target$104.50 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Slowing regional economic activity and intense competition for deposits compress net interest margins. Credit quality deteriorates, leading to higher provisions for credit losses that weigh heavily on earnings. Base CaseCentral scenario The streamlined business model successfully maintains revenue stability and profitability. Core banking operations benefit from steady loan demand and disciplined expense controls, offsetting the loss of the insurance segment's recurring fee income. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |