TOMI Environmental Solutions Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)1.67 Intrinsic Value $2.32median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $1.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 70% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+70%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.1M Enterprise Value $13.9M Shares Outstanding 8.1M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TOMI Environmental Solutions (TOMZ) is transitioning from a niche decontamination equipment provider into a diversified advanced materials and biosecurity platform. While the core SteraMist business continues to expand internationally—supported by recent Biocidal Products Regulation (BPR) approvals in the EU and progress toward NSF certification—the proposed $120 million merger with Carbonium Core, Inc. represents a transformative pivot into the high-growth nuclear-grade graphite and lithium materials market. Despite near-term profitability challenges and Nasdaq listing compliance pressures, the company's strong gross margins, positive operating cash flow in Q1 2026, and strategic positioning in critical supply chains present a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$7.00 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.5020% The Carbonium Core merger falls through during due diligence, and SteraMist adoption is slowed by regulatory delays or intense competition. The company fails to maintain its Nasdaq listing or suffers from severe dilution under its equity line of credit, leading to prolonged cash burn and depressed valuations. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.5050% TOMI executes the Carbonium Core merger, diversifying its revenue streams, while the core SteraMist business maintains steady 15-20% growth driven by European expansion and food safety installations. The company successfully executes a reverse stock split to maintain its Nasdaq listing, and operating losses continue to narrow as recurring consumable sales grow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.6730% The merger with Carbonium Core closes successfully, positioning TOMI as a key domestic supplier of nuclear-grade graphite for advanced reactors and AI data centers. Concurrently, SteraMist achieves NSF certification, driving rapid adoption across global pharmaceutical and biotechnology cleanrooms. Revenue scales exponentially, and high-margin consumables (BIT Solution) drive sustained profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |