TKO Group Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

TKO Group Holdings Inc

TKONYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryEntertainment

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $243.80median of 6 methods · middle span $183-$822based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $176.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $33.3B

Enterprise Value $36.3B

Shares Outstanding 191.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TKO entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: first-half revenue rose to $3.144 billion, first-half adjusted EBITDA reached $1.200 billion, and management raised full-year guidance. UFC and WWE benefited from higher media-rights fees, while IMG benefited from major-event hospitality. These strengths are balanced by $4.659 billion of gross debt, elevated legal costs and event-driven volatility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$185.00

Mean target$232.47

High · most bullish analyst$275.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$185.0020%

TKO misses the lower bounds of its raised guidance because event economics weaken, IMG hospitality or contract performance disappoints, legal costs remain elevated, or debt-funded capital returns constrain flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$232.4758%

Matches the consensus mean

TKO delivers within its raised FY2026 ranges of $5.775-$5.825 billion of revenue and $2.275-$2.305 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Media-rights growth and premium-event demand offset legal expense, leverage and event-timing variability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$275.0022%

TKO exceeds the upper ends of its raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance as UFC and WWE media-rights economics remain strong, commercial partnerships expand and IMG converts major-event hospitality demand efficiently. Continued repurchases could amplify per-share benefits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $5.775-$5.825 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.275-$2.305 billion after first-half revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased year over year.
UFC, WWE and IMG each produced year-over-year second-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, while TKO reported more than $1.3 billion of year-to-date capital returned to equity holders.

Key Investment Risks

Gross debt was $4.659 billion at June 30, 2026, and first-half net interest expense was $131.2 million, increasing sensitivity to financing costs and operating underperformance.
Certain legal costs totaled $94.3 million in the first half of 2026, including professional fees and an estimated loss associated with WWE-related stockholder litigation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.