TJX Cos Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $134.01median of 6 methods · middle span $93-$237based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $133.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $146.9B Enterprise Value $143.8B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TJX entered the second half of Fiscal 2027 with resilient consolidated demand and improving underlying profitability: Q2 comparable sales rose 4%, adjusted pretax margin reached 11.9%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 11%. HomeGoods, Canada, and International produced 6%-7% comparable-sales growth, offsetting Marmaxx growth of only 1%. Management maintained 3%-4% full-year comparable-sales guidance, raised adjusted pretax-margin guidance to 12.0%-12.1%, and increased adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.20. The long-term store opportunity also expanded to 7,500 locations, with 4% opening growth planned from Fiscal 2028. These operating strengths support a constructive fundamental view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$125.00 Mean target$177.40 High · most bullish analyst$197.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $125.0019% Marmaxx weakness persists, consolidated comparable-sales growth falls below 3%, and adjusted pretax margin misses 12.0% as wage, merchandise, or execution pressures outweigh operating leverage. The temporary tariff-refund benefit could also obscure weaker underlying earnings quality, while faster store development increases execution demands. Base CaseCentral scenario $177.4057% Matches the consensus meanTJX delivers Fiscal 2027 comparable-sales growth of 3%-4% and adjusted pretax margin of 12.0%-12.1%, broadly matching management's latest outlook. Diversified strength outside Marmaxx offsets slower growth in the largest division, while the company prepares to accelerate annual store openings in Fiscal 2028. Bull CaseUpside scenario $197.0024% Comparable sales finish near or above the upper end of guidance, Marmaxx improves after its weak second quarter, and merchandise-margin gains keep adjusted pretax margin at or above 12.1%. Stronger HomeGoods and international productivity, combined with the planned acceleration in store openings, would reinforce the extended growth runway. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |