Timberland Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Timberland Bancorp Inc

TSBKNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.54

Intrinsic Value $30.84median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $44.58Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $346.6M

Enterprise Value $120.6M

Shares Outstanding 7.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) represents a highly resilient, community-focused banking franchise in Western Washington. The bank has demonstrated strong fundamental performance, characterized by a stable net interest margin (NIM) of 3.83%, robust capital adequacy (Tier 1 Leverage ratio of 12.59%), and a consistent history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends (54 consecutive quarters). Despite minor sequential increases in non-performing assets driven by commercial real estate, TSBK's conservative underwriting and relationship-based deposit gathering position it well to navigate macroeconomic shifts and potential interest rate cuts.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$33.0020%

A prolonged economic downturn in the Pacific Northwest leads to a sharp rise in commercial real estate defaults, pushing non-performing assets above 1.00% and requiring significant provisions for credit losses. Intense deposit competition prevents funding cost relief, compressing NIM below 3.50% and impacting profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$44.0050%

TSBK maintains a stable NIM around 3.75% to 3.85% through disciplined deposit pricing. Loan growth remains moderate in the mid-single digits, and credit quality is managed proactively with non-performing assets stabilizing below 0.50%. The bank continues its steady dividend payments and opportunistic share buybacks.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$48.0030%

The Federal Reserve stabilizes interest rates, allowing TSBK to lower funding costs faster than loan yields decline, expanding NIM toward 4.00%. Strong regional economic growth in Western Washington drives double-digit loan demand in commercial real estate and construction, while credit quality remains pristine with non-performing assets reverting below 0.25%.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong capital position with a Tier 1 Leverage Capital Ratio of 12.59%, well above regulatory requirements.
Consistent shareholder returns with 54 consecutive quarters of cash dividends and active share repurchase programs.
Disciplined net interest margin management, expanding to 3.83% for the first half of fiscal 2026.
Deeply rooted community banking model in Western Washington providing a stable, relationship-based deposit franchise.

Key Investment Risks

Rising non-performing assets, which increased to 0.47% of total assets driven by commercial real estate non-accruals.
Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and potential margin compression if deposit costs remain elevated during rate cuts.
Geographic concentration in Western Washington, making the bank vulnerable to regional economic downturns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Non-performing assets rising above 0.75% of total assets, indicating systemic credit underwriting failures.
Net Interest Margin compressing below 3.50% due to severe deposit beta pressures.
A reduction or suspension of the quarterly cash dividend.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.