TIM S.A. Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $55.44median of 4 methods · middle span $26-$84based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $17.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 218% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+218%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.3B Shares Outstanding 475.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TIM's 2026 plan combines approximately 5% service-revenue growth, 6%-8% EBITDA growth and nominal capital expenditure of R$4.4-R$4.6 billion. The issuer's analyst-coverage page, updated August 6, 2026, shows 67% Hold, 28% Buy and 6% Sell recommendations. For the ADR, six disclosed targets range from US$21.40 to US$28.50 and produce a simple arithmetic mean of US$25.65. This supports a Hold stance: operating guidance is constructive, but the predominance of Hold ratings and the target dispersion argue against a more aggressive recommendation without evidence of upper-end execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$21.40 Mean target$24.49 High · most bullish analyst$28.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $21.4020% Service-revenue growth falls below the approximately 5% objective or capital expenditure exceeds the R$4.6 billion upper bound, weakening the planned operating leverage and cash-conversion trajectory. The US$21.40 target equals the lowest ADR target disclosed on TIM's current analyst-coverage page. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.4955% Matches the consensus meanTIM broadly delivers its 2026 guidance, including approximately 5% service-revenue growth and EBITDA growth within the 6%-8% range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.5025% TIM delivers near the upper end of its 6%-8% EBITDA-growth objective while maintaining nominal capital expenditure within the R$4.4-R$4.6 billion range. The US$28.50 target equals the highest ADR target disclosed on TIM's current analyst-coverage page. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |