Tillys Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value $5.76median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $4.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $141.6M Shares Outstanding 30.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Dec 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tillys Inc is undergoing a notable operational turnaround led by its new CEO, Nate Smith, who took office in August 2025. The company has achieved three consecutive quarters of positive comparable store net sales growth, culminating in a strong Q1 fiscal 2026 performance where comparable sales surged 22.9% and net losses narrowed significantly. Despite this near-term momentum and a projected return to profitability in Q2 fiscal 2026, long-term sustainability remains highly uncertain. The specialty retail environment is intensely competitive, consumer discretionary spending is volatile, and Tillys faces tougher year-over-year comparisons in the second half of fiscal 2026. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended as the market has already priced in much of the initial recovery, and execution risks persist. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.50 Mean target$5.50 High · most bullish analyst$5.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.5015% The turnaround stalls in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to a broader macroeconomic slowdown, persistent inflation, or failure to align product assortments with shifting youth fashion trends. Comparable store sales turn negative, gross margins contract due to promotional markdowns, and the company returns to generating annual net losses, eroding its cash reserves. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.5060% Matches the consensus meanTillys achieves its Q2 fiscal 2026 guidance of $0.13 to $0.20 EPS on net sales of $154 million to $160 million. Comparable store sales growth decelerates to single digits in the second half of the year as comparisons become more challenging. The company approaches near-breakeven or modest profitability on an annualized basis, maintaining a solid debt-free balance sheet with adequate liquidity. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.5025% The turnaround momentum accelerates as merchandising improvements and disciplined inventory management drive sustained full-price selling. E-commerce continues its high-growth trajectory (up 30.9% in Q1 2026), and store rationalization successfully optimizes the physical footprint, leading to annualized profitability that exceeds consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |