Tidewater Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tidewater Inc

TDWNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $75.65median of 6 methods · middle span $53-$110based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $81.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4B

Enterprise Value $4.1B

Shares Outstanding 49.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) is the preeminent global operator of Offshore Support Vessels (OSVs). The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural tightness in high-spec vessel supply and a multi-year offshore energy upcycle. However, near-term headwinds warrant a Hold recommendation. These include a significant earnings miss in Q1 2026 (EPS of $0.12 vs. $0.71 consensus) driven by elevated dry-docking, crew wages, and geopolitical conflict costs (Operation Epic Fury). Additionally, the $500 million all-cash acquisition of Wilson Sons Ultratug Offshore (WSUT) expands Tidewater's Brazilian footprint but adds $261 million in debt, narrowing valuation upside. While long-term fundamentals remain intact due to high contract coverage (~84% of legacy 2026 guidance) and rising day rates, the stock is currently fully priced relative to near-term earnings volatility and macroeconomic pressures.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$68.00

Mean target$90.86

High · most bullish analyst$117.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$68.00

A sustained downturn in crude oil prices below $70 per barrel leads to a contraction in offshore exploration and production spending. Integration delays or higher-than-expected operating costs from the Brazilian fleet squeeze margins. Restrictive debt covenants and high capital expenditure requirements limit financial flexibility, leading to further earnings downgrades.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.86

Matches the consensus mean

Tidewater successfully closes and integrates the Wilson Sons acquisition by the end of Q2 2026, achieving its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion. Day rates remain firm, but near-term margins are pressured by Operation Epic Fury costs and elevated dry-docking schedules. Free cash flow is prioritized for debt reduction, keeping net leverage below 1.0x.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$117.00

The offshore energy upcycle accelerates, driving day rates and vessel utilization significantly higher than expected. The integration of the Wilson Sons acquisition is highly accretive, generating over $220 million in high-margin revenue in the first 12 months. Rapid deleveraging from strong free cash flow allows the company to resume its $500 million share buyback program, driving a bullish repricing.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Preeminent global OSV operator with a highly diversified, high-spec fleet of over 200 vessels.
Strong revenue visibility with approximately 84% of legacy 2026 revenue guidance already committed through backlog and options.
Favorable structural supply-demand dynamics, as high vessel construction costs and limited shipyard capacity prevent newbuild oversupply.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to cyclical energy markets and crude oil price volatility.
Near-term margin pressure from geopolitical conflicts, rising crew wages, and elevated dry-docking costs.
Integration and financial risks associated with the $500 million all-cash acquisition of Wilson Sons, including taking on $261 million in debt.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to close or successfully integrate the Wilson Sons acquisition by the end of Q2 2026.
A drop in average vessel utilization below 75% due to a sharp decline in offshore drilling activity.
Sustained sequential gross margin contraction below 45% due to unrecovered operating cost inflation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.