Thomson Reuters Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

Thomson Reuters Corporation

TRINASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryResearch & Consulting Services

Beta (adjusted)0.46

Intrinsic Value $124.48median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$196based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $97.33Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $42.2B

Enterprise Value $43B

Shares Outstanding 448.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Operating momentum is favorable: Q2 2026 organic revenue grew 8%, the Big 3 grew 10%, and management raised the corresponding FY2026 outlooks. Recurring revenue represented 82% of Q2 revenue, while CoCounsel adoption and the launch of the proprietary Thomson model strengthen the company's position in professional AI.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$122.29

High · most bullish analyst$146.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.0020%

The bear case assumes organic growth falls below management's FY2026 outlook, AI investment does not translate into sufficient recurring-revenue acceleration, or the Global Print transaction is delayed or completed on less favorable economics. A weaker macroeconomic environment could also pressure transactions revenue and customer budgets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$122.2958%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Thomson Reuters delivers approximately 8% total-company organic growth and 9.5%-10.0% Big 3 organic growth for FY2026, with continued AI product adoption and completion of the Global Print transaction broadly on the announced timetable. Margin progression is expected to remain consistent with management's FY2026 guidance despite elevated product investment.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$146.0022%

The bull case assumes Big 3 organic growth remains at or above the upper end of the 9.5%-10.0% FY2026 outlook, AI-enabled products sustain strong recurring-revenue growth, and the proprietary Thomson model improves product economics and differentiation. Successful completion of the Global Print transaction would further concentrate the portfolio on higher-growth digital and AI offerings.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 organic revenue grew 8%, while the Big 3 segments grew 10% and represented 83% of total revenue.
Recurring revenue represented 82% of Q2 revenue, supporting revenue visibility, while first-half free cash flow increased 26% to $1.059 billion.
CoCounsel reached one million professionals across 107 countries and territories, and Thomson Reuters subsequently launched its first proprietary large language model for professional workflows.

Key Investment Risks

The proprietary Thomson model requires successful product deployment, independent validation, customer adoption, and monetization to earn an adequate return on AI investment.
The Global Print transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions, and Thomson Reuters agreed to financial support intended to provide KKR a minimum return under specified circumstances.
Management's outlook acknowledges geopolitical risk, uneven economic growth, and an evolving interest-rate and inflation backdrop that could affect achievement of guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.