Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc

TMONYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryLife Sciences Tools & Services

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $608.82median of 6 methods · middle span $538-$665based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $675.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $249.6B

Enterprise Value $287.8B

Shares Outstanding 372M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Thermo Fisher entered the second half of 2026 with strengthening end markets, 5% second-quarter organic revenue growth, 13% adjusted EPS growth and adjusted operating-margin expansion to 22.8%. Its broad scientific-instrument, laboratory-products and biopharma-services portfolio remains competitively strong, while Clario adds differentiated clinical-trial endpoint data capabilities and a stated long-term synergy opportunity. The offset is execution risk from a large acquisition, higher obligations and dependence on sustained customer capital spending.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets26 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$520.00

Mean target$631.42

High · most bullish analyst$750.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$500.0020%

Organic growth falls below 3% as customer capital spending weakens, acquisition-driven growth masks softer underlying demand, and Clario integration or synergy realization disappoints while higher obligations constrain capital flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$631.4255%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic growth moderates into a sustainable 3%-5% range, adjusted operating margin remains near the 22%-23% level, and Clario integration advances without a material disruption.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$760.0025%

End-market improvement persists, organic growth remains near or above the 5% achieved in the second quarter, new analytical platforms support share gains, and Clario delivers its expected high-single-digit growth and progresses toward the stated year-five synergy objective.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter performance showed broad operating momentum: revenue increased 10%, organic revenue increased 5%, adjusted EPS increased 13%, and adjusted operating margin expanded to 22.8%; Clario also adds high-growth clinical-trial data capabilities with a stated $175 million year-five adjusted operating-income synergy objective.

Key Investment Risks

The Clario acquisition requires successful integration and synergy delivery; meanwhile, reported long-term obligations increased to $39.181 billion at June 27, 2026, and the company identifies customer capital spending, government funding, regulation, foreign-exchange conditions and acquisition-benefit realization as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.