Theriva Biologics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.23Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $10.3M Enterprise Value −$2.4M Shares Outstanding 45.9M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Theriva Biologics is transitioning into a highly focused oncology player, leveraging its clinical-stage oncolytic adenovirus platform. The lead candidate, VCN-01, has demonstrated positive survival and safety outcomes in its VIRAGE Phase 2b trial for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). With recent alignment achieved with both the FDA and EMA on a pivotal Phase 3 trial design, the regulatory pathway is clear. Furthermore, the out-licensing of SYN-020 to Rasayana Therapeutics validates the value of its GI portfolio while allowing the company to focus resources on oncology. Although the company is micro-cap and faces near-term financing risks, its clinical milestones and potential for strategic partnerships present a compelling risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.00 Mean target$2.50 High · most bullish analyst$4.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.2420% Theriva fails to secure a strategic partner or additional development funding, leading to delays in initiating the Phase 3 PDAC trial. Delays in warrant approvals or failure to raise capital forces a dilutive financing event or a halt in clinical programs. The Spain feasibility study experiences enrollment delays, pushing back the Phase 3 timeline. Base CaseCentral scenario $0.5650% Theriva initiates the Spain dosing-feasibility study in H2 2026 as planned. The company successfully extends its cash runway into 2027 through a combination of strategic partnerships, warrant exercises, or modest equity raises. Regulatory interactions for retinoblastoma progress smoothly, establishing a clear protocol for a Phase 2/3 trial by late 2026 or early 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1.0030% The pivotal Phase 3 trial of VCN-01 in metastatic PDAC successfully secures non-dilutive partnership funding, accelerating clinical timelines. Repeated macrocycle dosing of VCN-01 demonstrates superior overall survival compared to standard of care, leading to rapid FDA approval and high market adoption. Compassionate use data in retinoblastoma supports a successful Phase 2/3 trial, positioning VCN-01 as a leading therapy for rare pediatric cancers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |