TG Therapeutics Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.45 Intrinsic Value $41.40median of 5 methods · middle span $21-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $53.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.2B Enterprise Value $8.5B Shares Outstanding 157.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TG Therapeutics has successfully transitioned from a clinical-stage biotech to a commercial powerhouse, driven by the rapid market adoption of its anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, Briumvi, for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS). The company's strong commercial execution is reflected in repeated beat-and-raise quarters, leading to an upgraded 2026 global revenue guidance of approximately $925 million. While the company remains heavily reliant on a single product, its pipeline expansions—including a self-administered subcutaneous formulation and consolidated IV dosing—provide significant mid-term growth catalysts. Financial flexibility is further bolstered by a non-dilutive $750 million credit facility and an expanded share repurchase program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$21.00 Mean target$69.71 High · most bullish analyst$86.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $21.0015% TG Therapeutics faces intense competitive pressure in the highly crowded MS market from larger, well-capitalized rivals like Roche (Ocrevus) and Novartis (Kesimpta). Pricing pressures and higher gross-to-net deductions erode Briumvi's operating margins. Clinical or regulatory delays for the subcutaneous formulation limit the company's ability to expand beyond the IV segment, highlighting the risks of extreme single-product concentration. Additionally, the high debt load from the $750 million credit facility increases financial risk if sales growth decelerates. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.7150% Matches the consensus meanBriumvi maintains its steady commercial trajectory in the U.S., meeting or slightly exceeding the raised 2026 net product sales guidance of $885 million to $900 million. The company successfully submits the sBLA for consolidated IV dosing in H2 2026 and reports positive subcutaneous Phase III data by early 2027. Operating expenses remain disciplined around the guided $350 million core level, leading to consistent GAAP profitability and positive cash flow generation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $86.0035% Briumvi continues to capture significant market share in the multi-billion dollar RMS market, driven by record new patient starts and superior patient persistence. The upcoming subcutaneous formulation successfully completes Phase III trials, doubling the addressable market by competing directly with established subcutaneous agents like Kesimpta. Label expansion into other autoimmune indications, such as Myasthenia Gravis, accelerates long-term revenue growth, while composition of matter patents extending to 2042 protect the franchise's high-margin profit pool. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |