TFI International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

TFI International Inc

TFIINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrucking

Beta (adjusted)1.41

Intrinsic Value $146.02median of 6 methods · middle span $106-$212based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $120.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.9B

Enterprise Value $12.1B

Shares Outstanding 83.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TFI International entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger operating momentum: Q2 revenue increased 12%, operating income rose 29%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 38%, and free cash flow increased 11% year over year. All three operating segments grew revenue and operating income, led by a 50% increase in Truckload operating income.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$158.00

Mean target$174.08

High · most bullish analyst$205.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$158.0018%

The downside case assumes renewed freight weakness or competitive pricing pressure, a miss below the Q3 adjusted-EPS guidance range, weaker-than-guided Truckload efficiency, and continuing accident or insurance costs. Acquisition-integration difficulties or capital expenditure above guidance would further reduce free-cash-flow conversion and constrain capital returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$174.0858%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Q3 adjusted diluted EPS remains within management's US$1.70-US$1.80 range, Truckload and Logistics realize their guided operating-ratio improvements, and LTL remains approximately comparable year over year. Growth moderates from Q2's strong rates but cash generation remains sufficient for planned capital expenditure and dividends.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$205.0024%

The upside case assumes that better freight-market conditions, pricing and disciplined capacity management persist; Truckload delivers at least the guided 550-650 basis-point year-over-year Q3 operating-ratio improvement; and LTL and Logistics maintain their Q2 double-digit operating-income growth. Continued free-cash-flow generation would support debt repayment, selective acquisitions and shareholder distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 operating momentum was broad-based: revenue grew in all three segments, while operating income increased 50% in Truckload, 32% in Logistics and 17% in LTL.
Q2 free cash flow increased 11% year over year to US$202.1 million, providing capacity for investment, debt repayment and shareholder distributions.
TFI employs a disciplined acquisition model focused on operational fit, near-term accretion, geographic or service expansion and a preference for asset-light businesses.
The quarterly dividend was increased 4% year over year to US$0.47 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Transportation demand and pricing are cyclical and exposed to economic slowdowns and highly competitive freight markets.
Fuel prices, foreign-exchange and interest-rate movements, insurance costs and accidents can pressure margins and cash flow.
Driver recruitment and retention, regulatory changes, environmental requirements and adverse weather can disrupt operations or increase costs.
The acquisition-led strategy depends on identifying, completing and successfully integrating suitable businesses.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.