Textron Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $88.22median of 6 methods · middle span $77-$142based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $76.20Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.1B Enterprise Value $15.4B Shares Outstanding 173.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Textron entered the second half of 2026 with revenue growth, substantial aerospace and defense backlog, reiterated adjusted-EPS and manufacturing-cash-flow guidance, and a potential portfolio catalyst from the initiated Industrial sale process. Conviction is constrained by dependence on additional MV-75 funding, weak first-half cash conversion, Textron Aviation manufacturing inefficiencies, and uncertainty over the timing and value realization of the Industrial separation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$92.00 Mean target$101.89 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $92.0024% Additional MV-75 funding is not received, producing the company's indicated adjusted-EPS and cash-flow downside, while Aviation execution issues persist and the Industrial transaction is delayed or fails to deliver the anticipated strategic benefit. Base CaseCentral scenario $101.8958% Matches the consensus meanTextron broadly executes within its reiterated 2026 outlook and advances the Industrial sale process, while Aviation inefficiencies and uncertainty around MV-75 funding limit upside conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0018% Additional MV-75 funding is approved and obligated, Textron achieves its reiterated 2026 earnings and cash-flow ranges, healthy aircraft demand sustains backlog, and the Industrial transaction progresses on favorable terms, sharpening Textron's aerospace and defense profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |