Texas Roadhouse Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Texas Roadhouse Inc

TXRHNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryRestaurants

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $175.63median of 6 methods · middle span $147-$399based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $156.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10.3B

Enterprise Value $10.1B

Shares Outstanding 65.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Texas Roadhouse entered the second half of 2026 with resilient demand: second-quarter company comparable restaurant sales rose 6.2%, and the first five weeks of the third quarter also increased 6.2%. The system reached 832 restaurants, while management continued to expect 5%-6% store-week growth. These strengths are balanced by elevated input costs, including 7.0% second-quarter commodity inflation and 3.9% wage and other labor inflation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$125.00

Mean target$217.74

High · most bullish analyst$276.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$125.0020%

Comparable restaurant sales fall to zero or below, or commodity inflation remains above management's approximately 5% full-year expectation. A deterioration of that kind would challenge the company's value proposition and reduce the benefits expected from its continuing restaurant-development program.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$217.7455%

Matches the consensus mean

Comparable restaurant sales remain positive and store-week growth stays within management's 5%-6% outlook, while commodity and labor inflation continue to offset part of the operating benefit from higher traffic and unit growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$276.0025%

Comparable-sales momentum persists near the 6.2% early-third-quarter rate, development remains within the 5%-6% store-week-growth outlook, and commodity inflation moderates toward management's approximately 5% full-year expectation. This combination would support continued footprint expansion without materially weakening the value proposition.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Demand remained resilient: company comparable restaurant sales increased 6.2% in the second quarter, and the first five weeks of the third quarter were also up 6.2%.
The development runway remained active: the system had 832 restaurants at June 30, 2026, and management reiterated expected fiscal-2026 store-week growth of 5%-6%.

Key Investment Risks

Input-cost pressure remains elevated: second-quarter commodity inflation was 7.0% and wage and other labor inflation was 3.9%.
Management identifies consumer discretionary spending, inflation and tariffs, labor or supply-chain shortages, food-safety concerns, and disruptive weather or disease events as factors that could cause results to differ materially from expectations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.