Texas Instruments Incorporated Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $227.39median of 6 methods · middle span $171-$266based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $280.09Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $255.8B Enterprise Value $266.2B Shares Outstanding 916M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Texas Instruments entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 revenue rose 23% year over year, operating profit rose 48%, and trailing-12-month free cash flow reached USD 6.534 billion. The Q3 revenue and EPS outlook points to further sequential growth. These positives are balanced by semiconductor cyclicality, continued dependence on industrial and automotive demand, significant fixed manufacturing capacity, and execution, regulatory and financing risks surrounding the pending USD 7.5 billion Silicon Labs acquisition. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$225.00 Mean target$324.45 High · most bullish analyst$405.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $225.0020% The cyclical recovery reverses, Q3 revenue or EPS falls below the low end of company guidance, and underutilized manufacturing capacity pressures profitability and cash generation. Free cash flow falls below the recent dividend run rate, while regulatory delays, debt financing or integration challenges reduce the prospective value of the Silicon Labs transaction. Base CaseCentral scenario $324.4556% Matches the consensus meanQ3 results remain within management's USD 5.65 billion to USD 6.15 billion revenue outlook and USD 2.23 to USD 2.57 EPS outlook. Demand growth moderates after the sharp Q2 recovery, but trailing free cash flow continues to cover dividends. The Silicon Labs acquisition remains pending toward its expected first-half 2027 close. Bull CaseUpside scenario $405.0024% Revenue remains at or above the upper half of the Q3 outlook, broad growth across industrial, data center and automotive persists, and higher factory utilization sustains free-cash-flow conversion. The Silicon Labs transaction receives approvals on schedule and the combined business remains positioned to capture approximately USD 450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years after closing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |