Tesla, Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)1.55 Intrinsic Value $99.85median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$303based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $354.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 72% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4T Enterprise Value $1.4T Shares Outstanding 3.5B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tesla's Q2 2026 operating evidence was mixed but strategically constructive: 480,126 vehicle deliveries demonstrated strong volume capacity, while 13.5 GWh of energy-storage deployments reinforced the importance of the energy platform. The investment case nevertheless depends on sustaining vehicle demand, executing capital-intensive autonomy and robotics programs, and converting those programs into durable economics. The recommendation is based on balanced operating evidence rather than an asserted valuation anchor. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$125.00 Mean target$395.34 High · most bullish analyst$600.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $125.0025% Vehicle deliveries fall materially below the Q2 2026 benchmark, energy-storage momentum weakens, or autonomy and robotics commercialization takes longer and requires more resources than anticipated. Competitive, regulatory, tariff, product-liability, and execution pressures then reduce the value attributed to Tesla's future platforms. Base CaseCentral scenario $395.3457% Matches the consensus meanVehicle and energy volumes remain substantial but fluctuate by quarter, while autonomy and robotics require continued investment before becoming material economic contributors. Bull CaseUpside scenario $600.0018% Vehicle deliveries remain near or above the Q2 2026 level, energy-storage deployments continue expanding, and Tesla successfully scales autonomy, robotaxi, AI infrastructure, and robotics. Better utilization and a broader mix of recurring software and energy activity improve the durability of the operating model. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |