Terreno Realty Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Terreno Realty Corp

TRNONYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value $57.78median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $64.55Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7B

Enterprise Value $7.9B

Shares Outstanding 106.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO) is a premier industrial REIT uniquely positioned to capture outsized organic growth through its highly disciplined focus on six supply-constrained coastal U.S. markets. By targeting infill locations with high physical and regulatory barriers to entry, Terreno maintains a robust competitive moat that drives exceptional pricing power, leading to industry-leading rental rate increases and resilient occupancy. Backed by an investment-grade balance sheet with low leverage and a strong capital recycling track record, the company is well-equipped to navigate macroeconomic volatility and deliver consistent long-term shareholder value.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$73.53

High · most bullish analyst$91.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$56.0015%

A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown or restrictive trade policies disproportionately impact international trade flows and port volumes, dampening tenant demand in coastal markets. Elevated interest rates increase the cost of Terreno's floating-rate debt (which stands at over 42% of total debt), compressing margins. Choppiness in leasing spreads and a decline in occupancy toward 95% lead to multiple contraction, aligning the stock closer to its historical valuation floors.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$73.5360%

Matches the consensus mean

Terreno continues to execute its core infill strategy, maintaining portfolio occupancy around 96% to 97% and achieving stable cash same-store NOI growth of 7% to 9%. Rent growth on lease rollovers remains robust at 20% to 25%, supported by the structural supply deficit in coastal markets. The company successfully integrates recent acquisitions (such as Landover and Hialeah Gardens) at stabilized cap rates of approximately 5.0% to 5.5%, justifying its premium valuation relative to peers.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$79.0025%

Accelerating e-commerce and last-mile logistics demand drive cash rent spreads on new and renewed leases above 30%, while the company successfully delivers its 0.9 million square foot development pipeline (including Countyline Corporate Park Phase IV) ahead of schedule and at yields exceeding 6.5%. Strong capital recycling and accretive acquisitions in key coastal hubs like Miami and San Francisco further compress the implied FFO multiple, leading to significant valuation expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Irreplaceable portfolio concentrated in six high-barrier coastal U.S. markets with extreme supply constraints.
Substantial embedded rent growth potential with in-place rents significantly below current market rates.
Pristine, investment-grade balance sheet with low leverage (net debt/EBITDA of ~2.5x) and strong liquidity.
Aligned management compensation structure with no cash bonuses for the CEO and President, paid entirely in stock based on total shareholder return.

Key Investment Risks

High geographic concentration in six coastal markets, exposing the portfolio to regional economic downturns.
Sensitivity to international trade policies, tariffs, and port disruptions due to coastal logistics focus.
Interest rate risk arising from a high proportion of floating-rate debt (~42.2% of total debt as of Q1 2026).

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in portfolio occupancy below 94%.
A sharp deceleration in cash rent spreads on new and renewed leases to below 10%.
A significant deterioration in the fixed-charge coverage ratio or net debt-to-EBITDA rising above 5.0x.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.