Ternium SA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySteel Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $32.08median of 5 methods · middle span $30-$121based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $54.30Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.7B Enterprise Value $10.9B Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ternium S.A. is a highly competitive, vertically integrated steel producer positioned to capture structural growth from nearshoring trends in Mexico and broader Latin America. Despite cyclical headwinds and rising steel imports in Brazil, Ternium's robust net cash balance sheet, low-cost production base, and strategic capacity expansions (such as the Pesquería project) support a strong recovery profile and sustainable dividend payouts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$56.69 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.00 The bear case reflects pressure from global steel overcapacity, high decarbonization costs, and tighter trade regulations. Reliance on volatile Latin American economies and potential project delays or capex overruns limit pricing power and compress margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $56.69 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes stable regional steel demand with moderate margin recovery. The Pesquería expansion ramps up successfully by late 2026, offsetting import pressures in Brazil and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina, while maintaining a steady dividend payout. Bull CaseUpside scenario $78.00 The bull case centers on Ternium gaining significant market share as North American supply chains regionalize, driving robust demand in Mexico. Higher margins are realized through low-emission steel capabilities, a shift toward high-value products, and successful execution of the Pesquería expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |