Terex Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Terex Corp

TEXNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.33

Intrinsic Value $47.10median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$76based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $52.60Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6B

Enterprise Value $8.3B

Shares Outstanding 105.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Terex Corporation is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by the integration of the Environmental Solutions Group (ESG) and the acquisition of REV Group (now the Specialty Vehicles segment). This portfolio reshaping significantly expands Terex's addressable market and reduces its historical cyclicality by increasing exposure to resilient, non-construction end markets such as municipal services, waste management, and utilities. Supported by a robust $7.1 billion backlog and strong secular tailwinds from grid modernization and infrastructure spending, Terex is well-positioned to deliver durable earnings growth and margin expansion, making it an attractive investment at its current valuation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$66.50

Mean target$79.94

High · most bullish analyst$100.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$66.50

Integration of the REV Group faces execution delays, resulting in higher-than-expected duplicate overhead. Persistent tariff pressures and unfavorable product mix continue to depress margins in the Aerials segment. A broader macroeconomic slowdown dampens private construction activity, leading to order cancellations and backlog contraction.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$79.94

Matches the consensus mean

Terex successfully executes its integration plan, realizing approximately $28 million in synergies in 2026. Backlog converts steadily, supporting full-year revenue guidance of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion and EBITDA of $930 million to $1 billion. Tariff headwinds in the Aerials segment are gradually offset by pricing actions and productivity gains in the second half of the year, leading to stable consolidated performance.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$100.00

Synergy capture from the REV Group acquisition exceeds expectations, reaching the $75 million run-rate ahead of schedule. Strong demand in the Utilities and Specialty Vehicles segments, fueled by accelerated grid modernization and municipal fleet replacements, drives operating margins toward historical cycle highs. Additionally, potential divestiture or strategic options for the Aerials business unlock significant shareholder value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Resilient and diversified portfolio with increased exposure to non-cyclical municipal and utility end markets
Substantial forward revenue visibility supported by a robust $7.1 billion order backlog
Significant margin expansion potential driven by $75 million in targeted run-rate integration synergies

Key Investment Risks

Execution and integration risks associated with the large-scale REV Group acquisition
Margin pressure from ongoing tariff headwinds, particularly affecting the Aerials segment
Sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and non-residential construction spending

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Consolidated EBITDA margins falling below 10% due to failure in synergy realization or severe cost inflation
A sustained book-to-bill ratio below 0.90, indicating a rapid depletion of the order backlog
Significant integration delays or write-downs in the newly formed Specialty Vehicles segment

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.