TeraWulf Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)3.17 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $14.80Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $7.4B Enterprise Value $7.9B Shares Outstanding 467.1M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TeraWulf has established meaningful AI-infrastructure traction: 102 MW was revenue-generating at Lake Mariner in early July 2026, another 336 MW was under construction, and Anthropic signed a 20-year lease for approximately 401 MW at Justified. Kentucky's approval of up to 482 MW of electric service reduces a major development contingency. These strengths are balanced by substantial construction, financing and delivery risk, including disclosed development costs of $8-10 million per critical IT MW at WULF Compute and approximately $10-12 million per critical IT MW at Justified. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$36.64 High · most bullish analyst$62.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0023% Construction costs exceed guidance, contracted capacity is delivered late, or annual customer contracting falls below 250 MW. Given the multi-billion-dollar development requirements at Justified and the long lead time before lease commencement, material delays could increase financing needs and postpone the conversion of contracted demand into revenue. Base CaseCentral scenario $36.6458% Matches the consensus meanLake Mariner capacity enters service broadly within the announced schedule, while Justified advances toward phased 2027-2028 delivery with manageable delays or cost pressure. Contracting remains positive but uneven. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.5019% Lake Mariner's additional 336 MW is delivered within announced cost and schedule parameters, the full 401 MW Anthropic campus enters service by early 2028, and annual contracting reaches or exceeds management's 250-500 MW objective. Successful execution would expand recurring, long-duration AI-infrastructure revenue and validate TeraWulf's ability to replicate its power-backed development model. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |