Teradyne, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Teradyne, Inc.

TERNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Materials & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.55

Intrinsic Value $400.21median of 6 methods · middle span $165-$664based on filings through 28 Jun 2026

Market Price $400.91Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $62.7B

Enterprise Value $62.5B

Shares Outstanding 156.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Teradyne entered the second half of 2026 with record revenue, strong profitability, and broad AI-related demand across compute and memory test. Semiconductor Test generated $1.122 billion in Q2 revenue, while Robotics reached approximately $100 million and recorded a fifth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. The operating evidence is favorable, but revenue remains concentrated among a limited number of test customers and management identifies semiconductor cyclicality, export controls, tariffs, product execution, and Robotics growth as material uncertainties.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$350.00

Mean target$449.80

High · most bullish analyst$550.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$350.0020%

Hyperscaler or semiconductor-customer spending slows, memory and compute test demand corrects, or export controls and customer concentration amplify a cyclical downturn. Increased development spending then meets weaker revenue, while Robotics fails to sustain its sequential recovery.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$449.8056%

Matches the consensus mean

AI-related test demand remains strong but normalizes from exceptional first-half levels, broadly consistent with management's lower Q3 revenue guidance. Semiconductor Test remains the principal earnings driver, Product Test grows selectively, and Robotics improves gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$550.0024%

AI data-center investment remains robust through 2027, sustaining demand for compute, HBM, DRAM, NAND, silicon-photonics, and high-speed connectivity test. Semiconductor Test maintains record-level revenue, Product Test benefits from AI and defense demand, and Robotics converts continued sequential growth into durable profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue reached a record $1.329 billion, 104% above Q2 2025 and above the prior guidance range.
Semiconductor Test revenue reached $1.122 billion in Q2, supported by AI-related compute and memory demand.
Robotics reached approximately $100 million of Q2 revenue and management reported five consecutive quarters of sequential growth.
Q2 GAAP gross margin was 59.8%, compared with 57.2% in Q2 2025, reflecting favorable Semiconductor Test volume and mix.

Key Investment Risks

Test demand is concentrated among a limited number of significant customers and their supply partners.
Semiconductor and electronics-test markets are cyclical and can experience rapid changes in customer capital spending.
Export controls, tariffs, trade restrictions, and geopolitical developments can limit market access and disrupt demand.
Robotics remained loss-making on a segment pretax basis in Q2 2026 despite improved revenue and lower operating expenses.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.