Tenet Healthcare Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $410.84median of 6 methods · middle span $102-$1,082based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $255.56Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.6B Enterprise Value $31.5B Shares Outstanding 83.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Mar 2000 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tenet's operating trajectory is constructive: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 16.3% year over year, adjusted EPS rose 52.2%, hospital margins expanded, and management raised its 2026 EBITDA and adjusted-free-cash-flow outlooks. USPI remains a high-margin growth platform, while substantial repurchases can increase per-share participation in operating gains. Balance is warranted because ambulatory same-facility cases declined, exchange-related payer mix remained unfavorable, leverage increased modestly, and Conifer must manage the conclusion of its CommonSpirit service relationship. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$260.00 Mean target$282.00 High · most bullish analyst$309.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $260.0018% Tenet falls below the $4.83 billion low end of adjusted EBITDA guidance or the $2.725 billion low end of adjusted free cash flow guidance as unfavorable payer mix persists, ambulatory case contraction worsens, or the CommonSpirit transition creates greater replacement-revenue and execution pressure than anticipated. Base CaseCentral scenario $282.0058% Matches the consensus meanTenet delivers within its raised 2026 ranges of $4.83-$5.03 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $2.725-$3.025 billion in adjusted free cash flow. Hospital admissions and margins remain resilient, while USPI's favorable acuity and pricing mix offsets subdued same-facility surgical cases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $309.0024% Tenet exceeds the $5.03 billion high end of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook and the $3.025 billion high end of adjusted free cash flow guidance as hospital margin execution persists, USPI revenue per case offsets soft case volumes, and repurchases amplify per-share results. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |