Tenaris SA ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.65 Intrinsic Value $36.20median of 6 methods · middle span $34-$94based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $55.18Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $27.9B Enterprise Value $27.3B Shares Outstanding 504.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Next ex-dividend24 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tenaris combines substantial balance-sheet protection with favorable North American OCTG pricing and a growing pipeline of cost-competitive offshore projects. At June 30, 2026, net cash was $3.564 billion, while first-half free cash flow was approximately $0.9 billion. These strengths are offset by second-quarter contraction: sales declined 4% sequentially and year over year, EBITDA declined 12% sequentially, and the EBITDA margin fell to 21.9%. Middle East shipping disruption, higher raw-material and logistics costs, and U.S. tariff costs remain material earnings risks. Management expects second-half sales and EBITDA to remain broadly in line with the first half, with potential upside if Strait of Hormuz disruption ends and fourth-quarter pricing and volumes improve. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because operational upside is balanced by cyclical and geopolitical uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$64.33 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0023% Middle East shipping and drilling disruption persists, raw-material, tariff and logistics costs remain elevated, and weaker volumes reduce fixed-cost absorption. EBITDA margin falls below 20%, working capital absorbs more cash, and shareholder distributions become more conservative despite the opening net-cash position. Analytical 12-month value: $40 per ADS. Base CaseCentral scenario $64.3359% Matches the consensus meanSecond-half sales and EBITDA remain broadly in line with the first half, consistent with management's outlook. Third-quarter seasonality and product mix are followed by improved fourth-quarter pricing and volumes, while Middle East disruption and input-cost inflation prevent a rapid margin recovery. The net-cash position protects distributions and limits downside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0018% Strait of Hormuz disruption eases before year-end, delayed Middle East shipments normalize, North American drilling and OCTG pricing strengthen, and offshore project deliveries expand. Better volumes, pricing and fixed-cost absorption restore the EBITDA margin toward or above its first-quarter 2026 level. Strong cash generation and the net-cash balance sustain dividends and additional shareholder distributions. Analytical 12-month value: $75 per ADS. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |