Tenable Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $38.99median of 5 methods · middle span $4-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $36.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4B Enterprise Value $4.2B Shares Outstanding 115.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tenable Holdings, Inc. is successfully transitioning from a point-solution vulnerability scanner (Nessus) into a unified, AI-powered exposure management platform (Tenable One). This platform consolidation strategy is driving larger, multi-module enterprise deals, expanding operating leverage, and generating record cash flows. Despite near-term headwinds from billing duration changes, Tenable's strong recurring revenue model and expanding non-GAAP operating margins position it well for sustained profitability and market leadership. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$35.35 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0015% Intense competition from endpoint-first players (CrowdStrike) and cloud-native platforms (Wiz) slows downmarket Nessus renewals. Restructuring costs and billing duration headwinds compress cash flow margins, causing unlevered free cash flow to fall below $270M. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.3560% Matches the consensus meanTenable delivers on its FY 2026 guidance, with revenue growing ~7-10% to around $1.07 billion and non-GAAP operating margins expanding to ~24%. Unlevered free cash flow reaches the guided range of $285M to $295M, supported by steady upmarket migration and disciplined cost controls. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.0025% Accelerated adoption of Tenable One and AI Exposure modules drives high-teens revenue growth. Platform consolidation allows Tenable to capture market share from legacy point-solution competitors, pushing non-GAAP operating margins above 25% and unlevered free cash flow past the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |