Tempus AI Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Information Services Beta (adjusted)2.82 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $81.90Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $14.8B Enterprise Value $14.4B Shares Outstanding 181.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tempus entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 22%, oncology test volume increased 31%, Insights revenue increased 36%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive. The company also raised its revenue outlook, expanded its FDA-cleared product portfolio, and demonstrated the breadth of its multimodal AI assets through PRISM2. These merits are balanced by execution risk around the proposed Personalis acquisition, the modest scale of adjusted profitability, significant stock-based compensation, and uncertainty over commercial adoption of newly cleared products. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$62.64 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.0019% The downside case centers on revenue or adjusted EBITDA falling below guidance, oncology volume growth decelerating materially, newly cleared products commercializing more slowly than expected, or Personalis introducing transaction and integration pressure without commensurate MRD growth. The quality of reported GAAP earnings also warrants caution because second-quarter net income included a large unrealized securities gain. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.6457% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Tempus delivers revenue within its $1.595-$1.605 billion FY2026 guidance range and approximately $65 million of adjusted EBITDA while oncology testing and Insights remain the principal growth engines. It also assumes the Personalis transaction progresses broadly within management's stated late-Q4-2026 or early-2027 timeframe. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0024% The upside case requires Tempus to sustain strong oncology and data-licensing growth, convert its approximately $200 million of second-quarter Data and Applications bookings into revenue, commercialize newly cleared products, and integrate Personalis successfully. Continued operating leverage beyond the current adjusted-EBITDA guidance would strengthen this case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |